Snowmageddon: Unraveling the Mystery of Weather Prediction

Here in the Pittsburgh area, as I'm sure is the case in many places, we have a curious...what to call it? Tradition? Habit? Delusion? Every time that there is a forecast of greater than 2 inches of snow, things get a little crazy. Despite the fact that the majority of Pittsburghers have lived in and around this city for decades, a city well acquainted with wintry weather, it's as if every snowfall is a strange new weather phenomenon. I'm not sure where the idea of stocking up on provisions such as milk, bread and toilet paper came from, or why there is a rush on those particular products as if we couldn't possibly survive 3 days (the longest I believe I was ever "snowed in", and I live in the sticks) without them. Ok, so I agree, toilet paper is a staple, but is there a reason to stock up on it? Or does everyone coincidentally just run out right before a snow storm? I'm not certain, but I think there may be a secret pact, a conspiracy if you will, between grocery stores, salt mines, and meteorologists. Someone's getting a kick back (I'm looking at you Jeff Verszyla - you and your unusually large collection of really nice ties).

So, as a public service to you, the people, oppressed for too long by larger than life snow forecasts, I present a public service announcement.*

30 years in the 'Burgh have qualified me to comment on what I see as an egregious affront to the dignity of the people of our fine city and its suburbs. Too long you have been conditioned to stampede, like a herd of cattle, to the nearest purveyor of fine foods, dispensable minerals, and papier toilette. You have hoped, in vain, for accurate weather forecasts. So I present to you, free of charge or obligation, a mathematic formula to accurately predict snowfall amounts, despite what the talking heads may tell you.

The formula is as follows:
Amount of snow (S) forecast (where S = the mean number in inches) multiplied by the number of days (D) they've been talking about potential snowfall (not counting the day/days of said storm) minus the number of gallons of milk (M) left on the shelf in any given convenience store (preferably a suburban one in an area with plenty of snow removal competency and experience, further pointing to the absurdity of the idea of running out of milk in the "Blizzard of ___") minus the amount of convenience store clerks (C) that comment on the milk you just bought in relation to the storm (even if you bought it because you are out, not "stocking up") divided by 5 (the amount of times Pittsburgh meteorologists have accurately predicted snowfall amounts in my lifetime) equals real snowfall amount (R).

So the equation is: (SxD-M-C)/5=R

Let's plug in the numbers.
Average inches forecast (3-7 is what I've heard): 5
Talking about this storm since Saturday: 3
Gallons of milk left at the GetGo in Monroeville last night: 3
Number of clerks who commented on the milk/snow phenomenon: 2

(5x3-3-2)/5=2

Simple math.

2 inches of snow. Hardly worth a trip to the store. Be empowered.

As a childhood hero of mine was known to say, "Now you know, and knowing is half the battle."










*This post is humorous in intent. No reference to professions, industries, or particular people should be taken seriously...or litigiously. Especially you, Epic Tie Collection Man.